Kochi: Will BJP turn out to be a dark horse in Nilambur where byelection is going to be held on June 19 is a tricky question making rounds in the minds of political pundits raking their heads to predict the result.
The BJP’s deliberate move to find a Christian candidate for the NDA front is to woo a majority of the 10.8 percent of Christian votes ignoring the BDJS representing the Ezhava community, many of whom were traditionally with the Left.
Things have started to change in the last few years and the convincing victory of the BJP conveniently from Thrissur to the Lok Sabha is a pointer towards this.
BJP will be working hard to woo a large number of the 45.3 percent Hindu votes in its favour.
With the LDF losing its sheen over various issues including allegations against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his daughter, garnering of the traditional vote bank of Ezhava community will not be easy.
The CPM and CPI are already facing challenges from within over various issues including the allegations against Pinarayi Vijayan.
Added to it is the problem of the LDF to face the challenge of responding to the barrage of attacks unleashed by its longtime buddy P V Anvar.
Though the LDF candidate M Swaraj had won election from Tripunithura in 2016, he shockingly lost to K Babu of the Congress in 2021 despite the wave flowing in favour of the Left front.
BJP, which is basking under the glory of India convincingly thrashing Pakistan post Pahalgam attack, will
fire all its booster rockets to make miracles ahead of the Assembly and panchayat elections in less than one year.
The BJP front will be heavily banking on the votes going the way of Mohan George.
Anwar’s decision to contest as Trinamool Congress candidate will hit hard the Left front and the centrist front led by the Congress.
A big section of the 43.9% of Muslim voters still have their affinity with Anvar for reasons which are known to all having basics of politics in Nilambur.
Anvar polled 81,237 votes in 2021 despite anti-incumbency against the Pinaryi Vijayan government – I, while V V Prakash of the Congress led front got 78,527 votes despite the mighty Muslim League’s support.
T K Ashok Kumar of the BJP could muster only 8,595 despite the Narendra Modi government heroics like abrogation of Article 370 ending the special status to Jammu and Kashmir among others.
The SDPI representing rightist Muslims got only 3,281 votes in 2021 showing that the Muslim votes were divided in favour of Anvar and the Muslim League that supported the Congress led front.
Nilambur a tough nut
