Kochi: With Nilambur in Kerala recording 75.27 per cent polling in the bye-election on Thursday, major parties are worried over the fate of their candidates due to the presence of Independent candidate P V Anwar, political analysts said.
The change of political climate in the constituency due to multiple factors have led to change in voters’ affiliation and mindset, they said.
CPM is worried over the anti-incumbency factor and Anwar’s revelations against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
The Left front had struggled to find a candidate with M Swaraj emerging a consesus nominee even as he had a poor track record.
A native of the region, Swaraj had struggled to get a margin of 4,467 votes to win the 2016 assembly election from Tripunithura which is a CPM stronghold.
Interestingly, he the 2021 election despite a huge wave sweeping in favour of the CPM front which was voted back to power for the second time, they said.
His traditional rival of the Congress led front is Aryadan Shoukath, son of veteran Congress leader late Aryadan Mohamed.
A film maker, Shoukath is making maiden attempt to win from the constituency from where his father won a number of times.
Congress which is caught in groupism and mud slinging is not a match to Anwar whose resignation led to the election.
It is here where Anwar factor becomes crucial as he stands tall among all due to having tremendous backing in the constituency.
Anwar’s rating zoomed when he quit the Left front as an Independent and levelled serious allegations against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his government boldly.
Anwar’s attack took place at a time when Pinarayi was struggling to deal with allegations levelled against his daughter Veena Vijayan over her alleged involvement in money laundering charges.
Presence of a low profile Mohan George as a BJP-led NDA candidate too has made things murkier in Nilambur where BJP have good backing due to its association with BDJS representing Ezhava community who have good presence in the region.
All these factors have made it tough for political pundits to make a precise prediction over the outcome of the election.
Counting of votes will begin at 8 am on June 23. There are 2,32,381 votes comprising 1,13,613 males, 1,18,760 females and eight transgenders.
A total of ten candidates are in the fray.The election was necessitated due to Anwar tendering his resignation due to his differences with Left front with whose support he won twice from Nilambur.
